Asian Countries Face the Greatest Risk from Severe Climate Change -by- Naseem Sheikh

As Ban Ki Moon said in September 2007 " Given the nature and magnitude of the challenge, national action alone is insufficient. No nation can address this challenge on its own. No region can insulate itself from these climate changes. That is why we need to confront climate change within a global framework, one that guarantees the highest level of international cooperation"
Asian countries including Pakistan face the greatest risk from severe climate change, which could force millions of people to flee their homes and trigger environmental migration, according to an Asian Development Bank report.

The report titled "Climate Change and Migration in Asia and the Pacific" says Bangladesh, India, Maldives and Pakistan face the greatest risk, but Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, China and South Korea are also especially vulnerable.
Public opinion in Pakistan in recent years has largely disapproved of how the Government of Pakistan totally ignored the problem of climate change. China, the U.S. and India seem the most reluctant to sign up to the EU's "road map" pointing toward the next climate treaty after the limits in the current one expire next year, have refused to commit to legal targets, raising the prospect that no country will have targets to cut emissions after 2012
From the World Bank commissioned report in 2009: "Public attitudes toward climate change: findings from a multi-country poll",comes this interesting look at country wide attitudes to climate change.
So it's interesting to look at how these views affected country attitudes at Durban recently.
Pakistan is one of the countries that has been severely hit in recent years by the disastrous effects of climate change including flash floods and devastating earthquakes. Public opinion looks set to remain far ahead of governmental action here.

Electricity Status of Pakistan is Really Disturbing and Short -by- Naseem Sheikh

We believe that electricity exists, because its life line of the countries,and the electric company keeps sending us bills for it, although we cannot consume it all 24 hours. "Pakistan is in the grip of a serious energy crisis that is affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. Luckily Pakistan has blessed by many types of resources but lack of attention and sincerity among authority leaders and concerned department all resources are just for name of appreciations rather than utilization.
For years, the matter of balancing Pakistan's supply against the demand for electricity has remained a largely unresolved matter. Pakistan faces a significant challenge in revamping its network responsible for the supply of electricity.
Pakistan's energy infrastructure is not well developed, to a certain extent it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Even despite the fact that of strong economic growth, rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation.
Besides, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown. The power cuts during this time amounted to 20-22 hours a day in most small cities and even cities like Karachi were seeing 18+ hours of load shedding.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day.
According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07.

The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW.

The National Assembly Standing Committee for Water and Power meeting was held in Islamabad under the chairmanship of Ghulam Mustafa Shah.Briefing the committee, Water and Power Development Authority Chairman Shakil Durrani said that Mangla Dam would be filled up to 1210 feet by the end of this year. This will enhance the water storing capacity of the dam by 0.8 million acres.
The WAPDA chairman said that load shedding cannot be overcome until 2018 and power demand would soar to 130,000 megawatt by 2030.
He said that India could not build dams on three western rivers, adding that the 16 kilometer long tunnel of Jhelum Hydro Project had been constructed.

													Supply and Demand Position: 2008-2020 (MW)
	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Existing Generation	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903	15,903
Proposal / Committed Generation	530	4,235	7,226	10,115	10,556	13,307	13,520	14,607	16,134	18,448	18,448	18,448	18,448
Total Existing/Committed Generation	16,484	20,138	23,129	26,018	26,459	29,210	29,423	30,510	32,037	34,351	34,351	34,351	34,351
Expected Available Generation	13,146	16,110	18,503	20,814	21,167	23,368	23,538	24,408	25,630	27,481	27,481	27,481	27,481
Demand (Summer Peak)	16,484	17,868	19,352	20,874	22,460	24,126	25,919	28,029	30,223	35,504	34,918	37,907	41,132
Surplus/Deficit Generation	-3,338	-1,758	8 -849	-60	-1,293	-758	-2,381	-3,621	-4,593	-8,023	-7,437	-10,426	-13,651

During 2010 Pakistan floods and 2005 Kashmir earthquake power stations, power distribution and transmission and other energy infrastructures were damaged. During the floods the recently constructed Jinnah hydroelectric power plant was flooded in addition to severe damages to transmission and distribution network and installations while several power plants and refineries were threatened by rising waters and had to be shut down. Natural gas field output had to be reduced as the flood waters approached the wells. There has also been some concern by Pakistani nuclear activists over the effect of natural disasters on nuclear plants especially over the Chashma Nuclear Power Complex, since the plant lies over a geological fault. Due to over reliance of Pakistan on dams for electricity generation some environmental impacts of dams such as submergence of usable/ecological land and their negative impact on Pakistan's mangrove forests due to loss of river silt load, as well as increased risk of severe floods have become evident
The entire circular debt system has plagued the entire system as banks, PSO, OGDCL, PPL, POL and refineries are all on the verge of collapse, a corporate lawyer and energy expert associated with some foreign investors in the local power sector has said.
"Short-sightedness of experts and the government is not only restricted to the power sector, but also the entire economy is stuck with it," Intezar Mehdi said adding, "Ill-consequences of bad energy and petroleum policy, or the lack of a holistic view has now been termed as circular debt."
The electricity prices charged from the end-consumers and its recovery had been the victim of government's incompetence and is influenced by the government of Pakistan's whims, compulsions and political calculus. As a result, National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) are unable to recover full cost recovery and surplus, he said.
About the main reason of non-recovery, Mehdi said that one of the reasons for non-recovery is the non-payment of bills by the customers. However, he said, a huge chunk could not be recovered due to misreporting, disguised losses and theft, masqueraded as inflated bills.
Mehdi said that there is no consistent gas supply for the four gas and diesel-based IPPs at Muridke, Balloki, Qadirabad and Sheikhupura, which got gas on rotational basis. The alternative, diesel firing, is apparently worse as the incremental cash loss is higher, hence, more circular debt, he said. Need of the hour is in the future, Pakistan must adopt other technologies for generating power from renewable energy sources, such as municipal waste and landfill methane geothermal recovery, anaerobic biomass gasification, biological fuels, fuel cells and ocean waves. "Faith is like electricity. You can't see it, but you can see the light." This is very famous quotation but as now days electricity shortage is on full boom so how we faith on government for providing us 24 non stop electricity because to further turn darker Pakistan to brighter Pakistan which is not in favor of few un seen so called Powers.

Noise Pollution, Perpetrator of Many Health Problems in Pakistan - by Naseem Sheikh

Noise has become a very important "stress factor" in the environment of man. The term "noise pollution" has been recently used to signify the hazard of sounds which are consequence of modern day development, leading to health hazards of different type.

Continuous exposure to high decibel noise can result in some adverse effects on your health. One of these hazards is acoustic trauma to the ears caused when they are subjected to the sound of an intensity of 85 dB or more without respite.
The health hazards of noise pollution can be categorized into physiological and psychological hazards. While the former includes hearing loss, hypertension, disturbance in sleep patterns etc., the later includes problems such as annoyance, aggression and stress.

According to a medical health guide lines, although high levels of noise for short time can lead to noise induced hearing loss early but usually 10 years of exposure is generally required for significant hearing loss to occur. This is preventable but irreversible. Hearing impairment is an increase in the threshold of hearing. Most commonly, noise-induced hearing loss involves injury to inner ear structures, particularly stereo cilia, the hair cells, and therefore known as a sensory neural hearing loss. Stereo cilia can be temporarily damaged by noise above 90db and permanent damage occurs with longer exposure. Excessive noise exposure during foetal life may result in high-frequency hearing loss in newborns. It can also cause tinnitus i.e. a ringing, roaring, buzzing, or clicking in the ears.

Most recent in human beings the major negative impact is insomnia (Sleep disturbance) which is root cause of many diseases, although more research is in progress. Healthy sleep is a prerequisite for good physiological and mental functioning. It may cause increased blood pressure, changes in heart rate and increased fatigue which may also lead to a devastating stress related conditions, noise above 80db may increase aggressive behaviour

Although most developed nations have government agencies responsible for the protection of the environment, no nation has a single body that regulates noise pollution. Transportation noise is usually regulated by the relevant transportation ministry, health-related work noise is often regulated by health ministries and worker's unions, and entertainment noise such as loud music is a criminal offence in many areas. Little is currently being done to reduce noise pollution in developed countries.
Impact of noise on aquatic animals;

This fact is proven by various studies in all major cities but the problem of noise pollution is also present in many smaller cities, from where no data is available.

Road Traffic Noise is another most widespread source of noise nuisance in the urban areas of Pakistan. The situation is getting alarming with increase in traffic density on city roads, particularly in Karachi.

According to Environmental Protection Agency, NWFP Government, campaign was started against noise pollution and use of pressure horns by public and private vehicles in Peshawar. During the whole campaign (1999-2002) total 3804 pressure horns were removed from 6068 vehicles in 178 working days. Moreover, this Agency have been checked 6630 Rickshaw for noise pollution during Jun-11997-2005, in which 3979 did not qualify the NEQS (85 db) while 2651 Rickshaws qualified NEQS.

According to a medical research of Pakistan (2008) almost 75% of public drivers in Lahore are affected by noise pollution, and more in Lahore.

Government of Punjab constituted a committee to address the issue of use of

Pressure horns in trucks and buses. A no. of meetings had been held in the past and more than 80% illegal

Horns were removed from intra city route buses of Lahoreon early 2001 but for other cities no action were taken now still mostly drivers use all types of horns to make their way easy to road.

Cities Names	Maximum Noise record levels db(A)	Minimum Noise record levels db(A)	Average	Sources
Gujranwala	100	41	72.5	JICA Report 2003
Faisalabad	100	47	72	Irfan, L.2002
Islamabad	104.5	47	72.5	Shaukat, L. 2002
Rawalpindi	108.5	48	72.5	Mehdi ,M.R.et al. 2002
Karachi	88.9	62.4	76.5	Tajik S.H. 2001
Peshawar	708.5	68.2	86	EPA

But what do governments do in a proactive way to inform their citizens about control of pollution. Under Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - which was agreed in 1992 and entered into force in 1994 - nearly 200 governments agreed to promote actions to develop and implement "educational and public awareness programs on climate change and its effects" according to motor vehicle rules, 1969's section 154,155 and 158 its government's responsibility to control all types of noise pollution.

As government level no, sufficient efforts are doing so its public's responsibility to take following few steps to control this pollution hazards.

Steps to reduce noise pollution: There is a dire need for legislation to control increasing noise pollution inside the city

• Plantation plays important role in reduction of noise pollution as plants absorbs noise of high frequencies. A dense ever green hedge even reduces noise of microphones by 20dB.
• Industrial areas and workshops must be out of cities as they produce high frequency waves of noise.
• Railway tracks, Aerodromes and highways must be located outside the cities.
• Vehicle must be free from pressure horn but having specific well performed vehicle silencers.
• Vehicle conditional checking made compulsory.
• Strict rules and regulation must be there as recently in Pakistan no specific legislation present to control noise; most important is if rules would make their application made strictly applicable.
• More Scientific research and knowledge must be promoted to know the reality behind the noise and all types of sounds.
• Public awareness is very essential and important for control of pollution of noise. For this television, radio, internet and newspapers should run campaigns for wide publicity.
• Noise monitoring team must be prepared which perform their duty along with traffic police to control vehicle noise pollution from the vehicle engine and horns.
• Blue areas must be declared as silence zone same ruled must be applied near hospitals and schools areas.